2013年8月22日星期四

Where is the weakness of easy letter?

Easecredit greatest weakness lies in its implementation and operators text telephone exchange product experience and stability in the face of massive amounts of customer service Electric Resistance welding carbon steel tube system, the actual easecredit just one appearance has exposed the two aspects.

How do face easy letter, the letter or something? I think should be from three aspects:

1, the discharge power: don't let easecredit spread up to lend a micro letter product (this has been done)

2, torsion potential: just said yi letter must be a public opinion to guide their hotspot, so it chooses in micro letter 5.0 momentum after high-profile launch, to let oneself become a hot spot and will Long Radius 90 Deg carbon seamless elbow try their best to keep the continuous hot spot. Micro letter is the best policy cause a new hot spot, make public focus back to the micro letter.
I think you can from the following viewpoints, such as micro letter quickly launched a new social games like a dozen aircraft applications, topic shift public attention by social game; Such as Banks, airlines and other service again Fang Dali promotion letter for the convenience of service, check-in, such as micro letter, micro letter, such as gas, 45 degree short radius pipe fitting elbows water and electricity through a single point for the convenience of imaginary space experience to upgrade, discussion of distraction!

3, broken: easy letter made innovation on product function, the most typical is exchanged with operators SMS, free calls, it's easy to believe most imaginary space to the market place, but unfortunately the function of the product experience is soft rib of easecredit, easecredit high-profile launch is a double-edged sword, advantage is that can cause a lot of attention in the short term, but also improves the user expectations for easecredit, if coming from widespread disappointment to easecredit products experience, so users can easily lost interest!

In fact, to some extent, the faith and the war of the battle is not only a product, or a battle for public opinion and public relations capacity! If yi letter before the heat wave on the past can't get quick user growth and gaining, then 2, 3 months later people will slowly fade out yi letter!

2013年8月20日星期二

Earth's magnetic poles have to flip over several times

The earth's magnetic field also have occurred many times the field reverses. According to the geology and the fossil record, scientists estimate that over the past 3 billion years, geomagnetic JIS 5K Plate flanges flip happened at least hundreds of times. And the frequency of the earth's magnetic poles reverse it is always changing, seems to be in the dinosaur s interval only occurs once millions of years, in the past 20 million years, the reversal has emerged as a model in 200000-300000 period. Just from a recent turn time period is more than 600000 years.

From the sea floor of deep-sea sedimentary columnar samples show that the earth's magnetic poles are offset. Since in the astm a234 CS seamless elbow R=1.5D early 19th century by explorers first accurate positioning, geomagnetic North Pole to the north to move slowly about 1100 km. In fact, the north magnetic pole movement speed is faster, as early as the beginning of the 20th century, its movement speed is about 16 km a year. And the movement speed is about 64 km a year.

Some people mistakenly believe that reversal can lead to earth's magnetic field to temporarily disappeared, the earth's magnetic field protects us from solar flares and coronal mass ejection. So, there was "the end of the world". But there is still no evidence that the magnetic field one R=3D 45 degree Pipe Fitting Bend day disappear. Weakening of the geomagnetic field is sure to lead to the surface by the sun radiation is a little rise, low latitudes may appear beautiful aurora, but you don't have any creatures died. By the fossil record, you can see several times before magnetic flip, the earth and live on earth, the animals didn't happen any dramatic changes, even the glacier activities did not change.

2013年8月19日星期一

Steel mills profit margins have been squeezed

In July for the iron and steel enterprises, the profit turnaround, does not reduce the pressure of a turnround for the whole year, in the face of higher iron ore prices, steel mills in the good times and sch80 galvanized carbon steel pipe end face.Steel index shows that as of August 16, steel index for 3700 yuan/ton, compared to July 1, 3390 yuan/ton, the price of the gains in only 9%; As of Friday, annual production capacity is more than 10 million tons of steel rebar production cost is about 3647 yuan/ton, a 54 yuan/ton increase over the weekend.

In addition, the recent domestic raw materials market price rise is bigger, such as imports of iron ore has risen to $30 a R=3D 45 degree Pipe Fitting Bend tonne, billet prices has risen up to 350 yuan/tons.
Tertiary rebar on Friday, the domestic market the average price of 3666 yuan/ton, compared with last weekend rose 68 yuan/ton, corresponding to 20 days prior to the cost of raw materials, small and medium-sized steel mills profit margins in the 60-80 yuan/ton.

In analysts view, steel mills to doing well in the second half of this year's earnings, but in general the big steel mills inventories are in 20 to 25 days, such as the time period, less than the ore price 3D eblow Carbon Steel pipe fittings rising steel prices, steel mills profit difficulty will increase.

A private steel mills in hebei people's opinion, under the circumstances of their production is still, the cost of ore price rise as the main drive growth, will make just win the steel mills profit war in July, August, September fear and back edge of loss.But market participants believe that the early rise faster imported ore, steel billets, steel scrap prices next week will face slightly adjusted, coal, coke and will continue to catch up slightly.

2013年8月14日星期三

Enterprise bond issuance way

Recently, there have been GuanCheng chase, cinda real estate, wolong real estate and Shanghai zhongxing group dense debt financing, involving raised billions of dollars. It is worth noting that the bond financing has exceeded the scope of affordable housing construction.

"This could be the country by the crackdown on real estate to support the real estate policy change another step, and equity carbon steel api 5l grade B tube refinancing before." Deng Hao believe that real estate is a capital-intensive industry, expand the sources of financing has a positive effect on industry development.

Specific view, enterprise, zhejiang wolong real estate on August 5, send announcement, the company plans to issue 600 million yuan of corporate bonds, to raise funds will be used in the company of affordable housing construction projects and urban village reconstruction is the building construction project. August 8, Shanghai zhongxing group issued 1.3 billion yuan SiMuZhai in inter-bank bond market, this is Shanghai real estate people regarded as the first local housing SiMuZhai.

In addition, GuanCheng chase said in a statement hot rolled seamless steel pipe on August 6, the company intends to issue total does not exceed 1.8 billion yuan (contain 1.8 billion yuan) of convertible bonds, raise funds will be used in nanjing century new city residential and commercial projects. Cinda property on August 9, said the company plans to issue no more than 2.8 billion yuan (contain 2.8 billion yuan) in corporate bonds, the term is not more than seven years, to raise funds to repay debt, adjust the structure of corporate debt, and to raise the rest of the money would be added to the company's working capital, in order to improve the company's financial situation.

Chen Baocun said, "is not only the housing, the five countries implementing rules, the China banking regulatory commission on thermal expansion of seamless steel tubes April 18th to encourage consumer demand guidance, support the terms of the commercial housing. The first suite, small family commodity house is the domain of the five countries encourage originally, now that the policy allows, let go of what is reasonable." Chen Baocun added, including bank loans, and even to be accurate, may also be a limited release, of course, because of the steady monetary policy and the same.

In the second half of the seamless steel tube is difficult to change the passive situation

The first two months of this year, the domestic seamless steel tube market is given priority to with shock rise, have gained in 100 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton; Since the beginning of march to the end of June has been maintaining shock downward trend, has fallen to 350 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton. Drop points area, the eastern coastal area is opposite bigger, the tianjin market has fallen to 400 yuan/ton. 4 months of continuous falling prices hit the confidence of the traders and end users.

From the point of supply, according to statistics, in January, may, the domestic seamless steel tube production is 12.5 million tons, up 9% from a year earlier. According to the first five months of output growth, the total output of seamless tube or will reach 30 million tons, up 6.39% astm a53/a106 steel tube standards from a year earlier. Domestic production is expected to break 500000 tons of the first half of the province of shandong, jiangsu, tianjin, zhejiang, hubei, sichuan, hunan, henan, Inner Mongolia and liaoning, the above 10 provinces (autonomous regions) in January - may's production accounted for 84.74% of total domestic output. Of jiangsu, shandong, henan and Inner Mongolia respectively year-on-year increase of 496000 tons, 258000 tons, 183000 tons and 183000 tons, it has to do with the four provinces (area) since last year new capacity (a total of 2.67 million tons) is directly related to reaches producing; And productivity in more than 50000 tons of provinces of jiangxi, anhui and zhejiang, mainly caused by a local private tube factory production or even bankruptcy.

On the demand side, the main downstream pipe industry demand. As the global economic slowdown, China's seamless tube is mainly downstream industry demand will remain weak. As can be seen from the main production key warehouse inventory, liaocheng, linyi inventory has increased, and a slight drop in inventories in wuxi area. Linyi, liaocheng area largely with recent inventory seamless tube is directly related prices continued downward, prices continued to fall makes the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is aggravating, and wuxi region due to less give priority to in order to Long Radius 90 Deg carbon seamless elbow digest the existing inventory replenishment. Sustained growth in the supply and demand situation of domestic seamless steel tube prices downward pressure will be applied to the year.

Under the condition of continued weakness in the domestic market, domestic seamless steel tube enterprises to relieve pressure on the export of important channel. January - may, seamless tube exports maintain modest growth in our country, the first five months of total export of 2.2192 million tons, increase from last year to 205800 tons, up 10.22% from a year earlier. According to the first five months of exports, according to an average expected full-year 2013 exports is expected to reach 5.3 million tons, up 2.56% from a year earlier. Due to Europe, America and some Asian countries, however, continued to China's export of seamless pipe anti-dumping, countervailing, so export growth fell by 3.57% year on year. In the second half, although the international economic situation is slightly better, but since last island dispute, the international political environment, especially the increase in the number of unstable factors around in our country, and the asia-pacific market is the seamless tube products are mainly exported to markets in China, so in the second half of the export situation remains to be seen.

From export varieties, five months before, the main export varieties for oil and gas pipe seamless pipe seamless steel pipe, oil and gas drilling and other seamless tube, accounted for 40.38% of total exports, 40.38% and 44.46% respectively, and the oil and gas pipe seamless steel pipe, seamless tube rose oil and gas drilling, also from the side reflects the oil and gas field is still strong demand this year, demand for electric 45 degree short radius pipe fitting elbows power and machinery processing industry.Together with the previous steel inventory digestion, as well as seasonal demand picks up, the late seamless pipe price is expected to be slightly higher. But because demand is unsustainable and rising prices for a short period of time will face a callback. The seamless pipe market in the second half, will be given priority to with tight trading range, high is expected to appear at the end of the third quarter, at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Considering the weak downstream demand, is expected to rise in 200 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton, the price is relatively low for years, so the biggest decline is expected in 200 yuan/tons.

2013年8月11日星期日

Guo jin min tui problems in China

Chinese academy of social sciences industrial economy published on August 9, a questionnaire survey of economists suggest, the vast majority of scholars of China's recent economic situation is not optimistic.

Against 100 domestic economic scholars in the survey, 21% of respondents believe that China's economy in the near future will still be the risk of falling, 78% of the economists surveyed said they were also over a period of time to maintain the status quo, only 1% of the respondents said the economy will turn up.On the day of the national bureau of statistics released in July, according to the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-on-year, the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.3% year on year, the industrial added value increased by 9.7% as compared with the actual. In addition to the PPI, most economic indicators are better than in June, July, however, is still lower than the annual control goal level.

Most economists believe that China's economy is unlikely to return to the era of double-digit growth. Nearly seventy percent of the respondents said the next 30 years of China's growth will be 6% to 7% and stable development; About 27% of the respondents thought the next 30 years of China's economic growth will continue in the 3% to 5%. A tiny part of scholars believe that China will continue to maintain more than 8% of the growth in the future.Participate in the survey of the Chinese academy of social sciences industrial economy Dr Li Gang judgment, the average annual economic growth since China's reform and opening up is 9.8%, even if the future growth dropped to 6% 7%, is still relatively high speed. At this rate, 30 years after China's economy is now five to eight times. "The next 30 years China will still is one of the main global growth momentum."

Although only 2.7% of the CPI growth in July, less than 3.5% of the annual target, but the price will not down the basic consensus, more than fifty percent of respondents think that prices will trend to rise within a year, forty percent said prices were little changed in a year.Li Gang said, at present the academic thought, the next step of reform needs to be more emphasis on fair, at the same time solve the problem of "guo jin min tui".Academy in this year's survey, recognition of "priority to efficiency and due consideration to fairness" economists proportion was only 20%. In a 2009 survey, the proportion is as high as 30%. In the poll, 38% of respondents thought "fair and efficiency are equally important", 34% of respondents think should be "fair" efficiency is preferential, give attention to two or morethings.

Although official caliber of digital display, private economy in almost every sector accounted for the increase, but there are still 67.7% of the respondents thought the domestic existing "guo jin min tui" problem. 77% of respondents think the proportion of state-owned economy is still too high, should fall further, only 5% of the economists argue that low proportion of state-owned economy.

2013年8月9日星期五

July credit and monetary growth both adjusted recovery rate cut is unlikely

In late July 2013, the renminbi loan balance year-on-year growth of 14.3%, compared with last month's 0.1% increase; The month loan an increase of 699.9 billion yuan, from the previous month less increase of 160.6 billion yuan, but than year-on-year increase of 159.8 billion yuan, belong to the historical high level. According to the year 9 trillion in new loans, dropping 20% in the third quarter, the third monthly lending is controlled in 600 billion yuan, from the perspective of July credit is not low. There are two reasons, one is the recent government proposed the support rail, such as urban infrastructure areas, turn shantytowns into new housing areas, environmental protection measures, and steady growth in the demand for credit has certain boost; 2 it is in June by the market of funds, bank liquidity pressure limit, ASME B16.9 Butt Welded reducing tee lending is not much, part of the loans were postponed until July.

Structure point of view, let public medium and long-term loans increased 243.1 billion yuan during the month, the month more than 49 billion yuan; Short-term loans increased 228.4 billion yuan, from the previous month less 154.6 billion yuan; Bill financing to reduce 103.8 billion yuan, from the previous month more than 27.1 billion yuan. Let public medium and long-term loans from implementation of gain and steady growth in July, part of the project construction, the proportion of the total new loans also promoted to 35% from 23% last month, is a sign of real economy stabilises. Continue to pull by previous housing turnover rose sharply, the month resident medium and 150# Welding Neck Flange long-term loans increased by 195.1 billion yuan, still maintain a high level.

Influenced by quarter loss of deposit, RMB deposit during the month to reduce 257.3 billion yuan, 243.3 billion yuan less compared to the same. Structure point of view, is mainly caused by fiscal deposits increased considerably, fiscal deposits increased substantially during the month of 654.6 billion yuan, compared with more than 227.2 billion yuan. Monthly household savings to reduce 393.5 billion yuan, 140.5 billion yuan less compared to the same; Non-financial corporate deposits to reduce 592.5 billion yuan, compared with more than 195.6 billion yuan. As a result, the financial savings ASTM A53/A106 spiral steel pipe compared to the more lost 55.1 billion yuan.

In late July, M2 and M1 rose 14.5% and 9.7% respectively, and last month increased by 0.5 and 0.7% respectively. Deposits in the fiscal quarter year-on-year reduction, fiscal deposits increase substantially, and foreign exchange growth may still depressed under the influence of unfavorable factors, such as money supply growth has recovered during the month. This may be because the interbank deposits increased considerably. M1 growth rebound in May also be related to business activity stabilised, but can be sustained remains to be seen.July social financing scale is 808.8 billion yuan, 243.4 billion yuan less than a year ago. During the month of credit financing scale is only more than $1000, mainly because it is a foreign currency loan is equivalent to reduce 115.7 billion yuan, with the appreciation of the renminbi weakened expectations; 2 it is not discount the acceptance of a sharp fall in the 178.3 billion yuan, which related to the regulation; Three is the enterprise bond financing is only 46.1 billion yuan, may be because of the influence of the inter-bank market liquidity squeeze at the end of June.

2013年8月8日星期四

The iron and steel industry overcapacity problem

From the point of current situation, main iron and steel industry overcapacity problem in developed countries are repeat itself, in our country and our country to resolve the difficulty of excess production capacity will be bigger than the developed countries.The decline in market demand, the steel industry to capacity, steel mills voluntarily cut capacity, the federal government undertook the steel mills in different social costs. The Japanese steel mills are in accordance with requirements of the industrial layout and environmental governance, large steel mills independent adjustment, small steel ASME B16.9 Butt Welded reducing tee mills and into the big steel mills, and closely linked to the downstream users, to carry out strategic cooperation, and moving some production to other countries, including China.

But our country does not seem to be based on the experience of the foreign steel mills.

"China's steel mills will be concentrated in one place, steel smelting is the new city, expanding scale." Jingdong said later. But the foreign steel mills group generally consists of several relatively reasonable layout, appropriate scale, a clear division of responsibilities, have the region characteristic, can meet the demand of the local scale, a unified corporate culture composed of iron and steel company, not blind development, too. Joint 150# Welding Neck Flange restructuring. "this is the foreign joint restructuring is not a stage of the work, is a continuous process.

Steel companies restructuring has played an important role on optimizing productivity. Japan, the European steel mills by restructuring controlled the scale expansion, control the production release, dissolved the excess production capacity. But since 1997, hunan valin iron and steel was set up to now, China's steel sector has more than 50 restructuring, ASTM A53/A106 spiral steel pipe success and failure. Late jingdong believes that domestic m&a market environment is forming, but is not yet mature.

In the top ten of the world's steel mills, there are six in China, the annual output of 242 million tons; In the top 35 steel mills, there are 17 in China, the annual output of more than 367 million tons. Chinese steel mills size bigger and bigger, but the industrial concentration is not high.

Steel release capacity cannot hope to urbanization and the development of the western region

According to the ministry of commerce web site of the public, only the first two months of this year, China's iron and steel products was five anti-dumping investigation or arbitration. South America and southeast Asia and other emerging market countries also began to Chinese iron and steel products "fist". So, the road of the export of steel products is not so easy.Due to pull the steel consumption depends on investment in fixed assets, so people have Suggestions on investment, especially the urbanization and STD seamless steel pipe ASME B36.10m the development of the western region to digest the steel production capacity.

The late jingdong said it won't work, "the Japanese have lessons in this respect."

The first half of 1970 s, Japanese investment in fixed assets of more than 30% of GDP, the highest was 39%. This led to the Japanese steel companies with excess capacity. To this end, Japan took 20 years to adjust excess capacity. Later, the Japanese investment in fixed assets as a share of GDP has not more than 25%, basic within 20%.
While China's investment in fixed assets more than 45% of GDP. According to the national bureau of statistics, the domestic schedule 80 galvanized steel pipe fixed asset investment growth fell significantly, in the first half of this year was 20.1%, among them, the iron and steel industry to complete the fixed asset investment grew 4.26% year-on-year.

"If the domestic investment in fixed assets as a share of GDP increase, no longer rely on stimulating domestic consumption to solve the excess capacity, it is with great results." Late jingdong said. "in response to the R=5D 45 degree long radius eblow stimulus package in the global financial crisis has gradually exit, investment growth fell back, investment in steel consumption elasticity coefficient and to reduce the GDP. The turning point of our country has already entered the steel consumption demand slowdown."In this kind of supply and demand situation, late jingdong believe the release of steel production capacity cannot hope to urbanization and the development of the western region.

"Urbanization can drive the steel consumption, but at the same time the demand potential is released, and not wait and we haven't released." Late jingdong said, only the potential demand can smooth release, in a period of time in the future will be good for steel enterprise development. In accordance with the state information center, to achieve 70% of the urbanization, cost about 120 trillion. He said, "but don't hope to 120 trillion within five years can all smashed into it."