In the second half of the seamless steel tube is difficult to change the passive situation

The first two months of this year, the domestic seamless steel tube market is given priority to with shock rise, have gained in 100 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton; Since the beginning of march to the end of June has been maintaining shock downward trend, has fallen to 350 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton. Drop points area, the eastern coastal area is opposite bigger, the tianjin market has fallen to 400 yuan/ton. 4 months of continuous falling prices hit the confidence of the traders and end users.

From the point of supply, according to statistics, in January, may, the domestic seamless steel tube production is 12.5 million tons, up 9% from a year earlier. According to the first five months of output growth, the total output of seamless tube or will reach 30 million tons, up 6.39% astm a53/a106 steel tube standards from a year earlier. Domestic production is expected to break 500000 tons of the first half of the province of shandong, jiangsu, tianjin, zhejiang, hubei, sichuan, hunan, henan, Inner Mongolia and liaoning, the above 10 provinces (autonomous regions) in January - may's production accounted for 84.74% of total domestic output. Of jiangsu, shandong, henan and Inner Mongolia respectively year-on-year increase of 496000 tons, 258000 tons, 183000 tons and 183000 tons, it has to do with the four provinces (area) since last year new capacity (a total of 2.67 million tons) is directly related to reaches producing; And productivity in more than 50000 tons of provinces of jiangxi, anhui and zhejiang, mainly caused by a local private tube factory production or even bankruptcy.

On the demand side, the main downstream pipe industry demand. As the global economic slowdown, China's seamless tube is mainly downstream industry demand will remain weak. As can be seen from the main production key warehouse inventory, liaocheng, linyi inventory has increased, and a slight drop in inventories in wuxi area. Linyi, liaocheng area largely with recent inventory seamless tube is directly related prices continued downward, prices continued to fall makes the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is aggravating, and wuxi region due to less give priority to in order to Long Radius 90 Deg carbon seamless elbow digest the existing inventory replenishment. Sustained growth in the supply and demand situation of domestic seamless steel tube prices downward pressure will be applied to the year.

Under the condition of continued weakness in the domestic market, domestic seamless steel tube enterprises to relieve pressure on the export of important channel. January - may, seamless tube exports maintain modest growth in our country, the first five months of total export of 2.2192 million tons, increase from last year to 205800 tons, up 10.22% from a year earlier. According to the first five months of exports, according to an average expected full-year 2013 exports is expected to reach 5.3 million tons, up 2.56% from a year earlier. Due to Europe, America and some Asian countries, however, continued to China's export of seamless pipe anti-dumping, countervailing, so export growth fell by 3.57% year on year. In the second half, although the international economic situation is slightly better, but since last island dispute, the international political environment, especially the increase in the number of unstable factors around in our country, and the asia-pacific market is the seamless tube products are mainly exported to markets in China, so in the second half of the export situation remains to be seen.

From export varieties, five months before, the main export varieties for oil and gas pipe seamless pipe seamless steel pipe, oil and gas drilling and other seamless tube, accounted for 40.38% of total exports, 40.38% and 44.46% respectively, and the oil and gas pipe seamless steel pipe, seamless tube rose oil and gas drilling, also from the side reflects the oil and gas field is still strong demand this year, demand for electric 45 degree short radius pipe fitting elbows power and machinery processing industry.Together with the previous steel inventory digestion, as well as seasonal demand picks up, the late seamless pipe price is expected to be slightly higher. But because demand is unsustainable and rising prices for a short period of time will face a callback. The seamless pipe market in the second half, will be given priority to with tight trading range, high is expected to appear at the end of the third quarter, at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Considering the weak downstream demand, is expected to rise in 200 yuan/ton, 300 yuan/ton, the price is relatively low for years, so the biggest decline is expected in 200 yuan/tons.